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SATURDAY, APRIL 10, 2021 5
A SUPPLEMENT TO THE WINNIPEG FREE PRESS
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2020 and the COVID-19 pandemic Multiple phases of the global spread of COVID-19 led to a pattern of “closing-shutdown-re-openings” that immediately induced a stop and go back-up of cargo traffic at ports around the world. This was accompanied by unprecedented drops in trade activity as well as major changes to consumer spending patterns which, in combination with logistics interruptions, produced freight rates that hit record levels amid a changing shipper and carrier relationship. Key developments to watch for in 2021 Economic forecasters are projecting a return to trade growth for Canada of 5-8% in 2021 and 2022 respectively. However, robust growth will only be realized when the pandemic is brought under control, which is tied to the success and timing of the vaccine roll-out. As Canada moves away from the pandemic crisis, economic recovery will be uneven both domestically, differing by industry, as well as internationally, depending on, amongst other factors, how foreign customers are able to distribute the vaccine. Businesses in Western Canada should anticipate and plan for markets to recover at different times and at different speeds. This implies that different sectors will require very different strategies and that even for the same product different foreign markets will require different approaches. Another key issue to watch in the coming year will be whether businesses and countries choose to mitigate recent supply-chain risks by diversifying their customer bases or alternatively by “reshoring” in favour of increasing self-sufficiency closer to home. A key signal on this front affecting Canada’s most valuable trade relationship will be the emerging policy approach the new administration in the United States. Pay attention to the results of President Biden’s 100-day review of the US supply chain. What’s next Beginning later in 2021 Western Canada can expect a return to trade growth in an environment of intensifying international competition and demands for more nimble supply-chain execution. It is hard to imagine an economy, as reliant on trade as that of Western Canada, where investments to improve domestic trade corridors can have a greater impact. Recent years have taught us that, in this evolving world of international trade, there will be ongoing changes and many variables beyond our control. However, we can and should improve the productivity of the corridor infrastructure that facilitates our trade- based economy. Doing so will send an important message to our international customers and set the stage for future economic growth.
John Law is the President of Lawmark International Consulting and a senior fellow with the Canada West Foundation. He is the former chair of the Canadian Council of Deputy Ministers responsible for Transportation and Infrastructure
INTRODUCING A BRAND NEW PLAN FOR MANITOBA ’ S CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY
and served as president of the Transportation Association of Canada.
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